July 24, 2024

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JP Morgan says the market is betting that Trump will win the US elections

JP Morgan says the market is betting that Trump will win the US elections

The bank said on Tuesday (June 11) that Republicans will hold a majority in the Senate.

researchers JP Morgan In a report on Tuesday (June 11, 2024), the main expectation in the market is that Donald Trump Will be elected President of the United States. Also, Republicans will win the Senate and Democrats will gain a majority in the House of Representatives.

However, the investment bank insists that it is still too late to predict the election results, with a large portion (70%) believing that the current partisan division of Congress will continue.

“Investor sentiment remains optimistic about impact of US elections on financial markets”JP Morgan said. “Only 12% of those interviewed in our survey see the election as a major risk to markets.”

While sharing analysis that is more relevant to the election scenario, JP Morgan said that a possible Trump victory would harden the US’s position in international politics, especially in relation to China.

So, I agree with that philosophy “America Must Prevail and Dominate” and intensifying the use of presidential decrees in the trade and investment sector.

Additionally, it has been noted that Trump could undo progress on environmental and renewable energy policies.

For JP Morgan, a new Trump term will likely include experienced political allies, people already known and well-respected by the market, unlike some appointed during his first administration.

“A Trump 2.0 government could increase tensions between the US and the EU, which would have negative consequences for Ukraine”he said.

The bank also noted that administrative performance and track record are important factors in election results. “Presently puts Biden For a benefit.”

Short edge

However, similar to the 2016 and 2020 scenarios, the financial institution projects that the 2024 US presidential election will be decided by narrow margins in key states.

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According to the bank’s analysis, presidential debates have the potential to persuade undecided voters, but they also represent risks for both candidates. At the same time, Generation Z remains a significant but disappointing electoral segment, raising doubts about electoral participation and the need for targeted political proposals.

with the information that Brazil investment.