May 26, 2022

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A study - Revista Galileu says that the deaths from the Covid pandemic could be three times what was recorded

A study – Revista Galileu says that the deaths from the Covid pandemic could be three times what was recorded

The study says that deaths from the Covid pandemic could be three times what was recorded. Above: The burial of Covid-19 victims at the Nossa Senhora Aparecida cemetery, in Manaus (AM) (Photo: Alex Pazuello/Semcom)

analyzing Published in the scientific journal scalpel It is estimated that the global number of The covid-19 pandemic killed them It can be up to three times what was recorded by official data. Looking at 191 countries and territories, the study predicts that 18.9 million people died from the health crisis caused by SARS-CoV-2 By December 2021, triple the 5.9 million that was officially calculated. This is the first peer-reviewed global estimate to be published on this topic.

To reach this estimate, researchers led by the US Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation analyzed data collected by the Human Mortality Database, the European Union’s Statistics Office and the Global Health Mortality Database. United Nations (UN).

The information evaluated indicated all-cause deaths that occurred between 2020 and 2021 in 74 countries and 266 states and territories. It was compared with data collected 11 years before pandemic and formed the basis for creating a statistical model that can more accurately predict the actual number of Victims of the epidemic.

The alarming difference between the official data and the study’s estimated number can be explained by the large number of undiagnosed cases from Corona virus disease – for absence Tests – Errors in recording data.

According to the survey, the areas with the largest increase in deaths—that is, the difference between reported and estimated deaths from all causes—are South Asia (5.3 million), North Africa and the Middle East (1.7 million) and Eastern Europe (1.4 million). Comparing the increase in deaths with the recorded number of Covid-19 victims, it is estimated that South Asia has 9.5 times the number of deaths from the disease than official data and Sub-Saharan Africa14.5 times.

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When analyzing by country, the researchers found that the countries with the most deaths are India (4.1 million), we (1.1 million), Russia (1.1 million), Mexico (798 thousand), and in fifth place is Brazil (792 thousand).

The highest rates are observed in Russia (375 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants) and Mexico (325 victims per 100,000 inhabitants). Brazil and the United States had similar rates (187 and 179 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively). Due to its huge population, Indiaalone, is responsible for about 22% of all global deaths.

“Understanding the true number of deaths due to the epidemic is vital to making effective decisions in the Public Health‘,” says Haidong Wang, associate professor in the Department of Global Health at the University of Washington, researcher at the American Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and lead researcher.

However, he says, further analysis is needed to understand the true extent of the health crisis. “Studies from several countries, including Sweden and the Netherlands, indicate that Covid-19 was the direct cause of most excess deaths, but we do not currently have sufficient evidence for most locations.” “Additional research will help reveal the number of deaths caused directly by Covid-19 and the number of deaths that occurred as an indirect result of the epidemic.”