Analysts say the U.S. and UK could send $ 150 a barrel if they ignored Russian oil

On Monday night, Russia threatened to cut off natural gas supplies to Europe via the Nortstream 1 pipeline. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned that the move could have “devastating consequences” for the world economy. The price of a barrel can reach US $ 300.

Oil rose more than 7% this Tuesday, crossing US $ 131 per barrel for the Brent brand, indicating for the European market, and US $ 128 for the WTI (US), in the face of the prospect of international sanctions on the oil and gas trade. Note).

Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have risen more than 70%, reaching a high of US $ 139 on Monday, the highest level since reaching $ 147 in 2008.

According to researchers who listened to BBC News in Brazil, the US import embargo is more indicative of the practical impact than Russia, which accounts for only 8% of US oil imports.

However, Biden’s announcement, along with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, has caused international prices to fluctuate and analysts expect prices to return to close to US $ 150 in the coming days.

In Brazil, the situation is exacerbating pressure for a change in Petrobras’ pricing policy as President Jair Bolzano (PL) worries about the consequences of inflation in the October election race.

In Congress, bills to reduce pressure on fuel are gaining momentum with rising international oil prices.

Here, the perception of the worsening inflation situation is consolidated. This Tuesday, XP Investmentos, for example, raised its forecast for inflation in Brazil from 5.2% this year to 6.2% and next year from 3.25% to 3.80% due to a more volatile commodity price index.

On the other hand, the French bank BNP Paribas raised its forecast for the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) for 2022 from 6% to 7%. The previous estimate was 12.25%.

“Tuesday’s announcements should bring more volatility in the market, even if the United States imports a small amount of oil from Russia, more than 600,000 barrels a day,” notes Ale Delara, managing partner of commodity broker Pine.

“But this announcement brings the impression that the first step is to ban the import of goods from Russia, which have been protected until then.”

According to the analyst, a more serious situation could arise if Russia threatens to shut down its gas pipeline to Europe immediately.

“With the US import embargo, it could reach $ 150 a barrel because we’re already very close to that price. But if Russia decides to stop exporting, if they take a long time to return, then it’s very difficult to predict the price level,” Delara said.

“$ 300 a barrel [como previu o vice-primeiro-ministro russo Alexander Novak] Sounds very apocalyptic, but $ 200 is possible if the ban lasts 60 days. But it will be a catastrophic situation that is not on the radar right now, “he said.

For Dawisson Belém Lopes, UFMG’s international political professor (Minas Gerais Federal University), the embargo may not be as decisive in the course of the war, but it adds to the unprecedented set of sanctions against Russia.

“It has a symbolic impact. It’s a strong signal. If Biden had no choice but to have a transparent approach to the effort, it would be very strange for the United States to launch a war of attrition and retaliation by targeting Putin. .

He acknowledges that Russia’s situation is worse now that sanctions have been imposed, but do not rule out Putin’s tough stance.

“Russia can not give up oil and natural gas rents, but, under a dictatorial regime, the impact of the popular uprising is minimal, so the ruler has the potential to push the effects of social and economic devastation on the people without causing much harm,” the professor observes.

An expert in international politics at the UFMG believes that Russia’s supply control situation could lead the world to an oil crisis similar to that of the 1970s.

He believes this is temporary as the US resumes talks with Iran and Venezuela and releases its emergency reserves to mitigate the effects of the crisis, as countries are strongly dependent on the economy and are already struggling to find alternatives to Russian oil. ..

Lopes also recalled that Biden had improved his ratings in the United States in response to the war in Ukraine. But he believes the effect could wear off because public opinion is tired.

“There is a reaction from Python’s popularity, but I do not know if this will continue in the medium term. Things are defining ‘feeling good factor’, that is, the economy is doing well, the country is recovering. How to settle accounts with the epidemic and then China,” he says.

The big issue for the professor is his relationship with China. “If there is a sense that China has won this controversy and has been able to make Russia a more dependent country, it would not be good in the eyes of the American people.”

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