LONDON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates from September 2022, according to a 2022 outlook by economists at the country’s largest private bank.
JPMorgan The US Federal Reserve expects to borrow 0.25 percent from the third quarter of next year and will continue to push for “same interest rate increases until at least real interest rates reach zero each quarter,” wrote the panel, led by chief economist Mike Ferroly.
The “real” yield of ten-year inflation-adjusted treasuries on Thursday was -1.12%.
The bank’s forecast for the central bank’s first interest rate hike is slightly more conservative than some rivals such as Deutsche Bank, which expects the first hike in July 2022. Currency markets are forecasting their first rise at the same time.
JP Morgan economists expect the US economy to grow at an average of 3.5% in 2022, compared to 5.5% in 2022. According to lenders, full employment is expected to be reached by mid-2022.
Inflation is also expected to decline in the coming quarters, as average prices are expected to increase by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2022, compared to 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021.
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