Hiring in the United States should have accelerated last month, with several indicators suggesting that the effects of the country’s recent Govt-19 rally are starting to wane, but even a consistently weak second-job report will not affect the Federal Reserve’s plans. Begin to reduce its support for the economy.
Ahead of the release of the U.S. Department of Labor’s non-agricultural job creation report for September, Reuters’ estimate of data on firms monitoring labor market practices, including economists, indicates the result of an average survey of 500,000 jobs.
That number may be enough for the central bank to begin its stimulus reduction process.
Fed President Jerome Powell said last month that there was a comprehensive agreement among officials that Powell’s words were “decent” until the September report on the US central bank’s monthly purchase of assets in November.
Even the most “dovish” members of federal Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans have expressed a desire to follow this timeline to reduce the amount of relaxation that was implemented last year. Infectious.
“We hope that as long as the wage reading is above zero we will reach the barrier to easing size,” said Lydia Bowsour, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. Bowsour estimates that 384,000 jobs were created last month.
The path to normalizing monetary policy became clear on Thursday after US lawmakers reached a tentative agreement to raise the US government’s debt ceiling. The move by the end of this month avoids a possible default, which will force the central bank to return to crisis-fighting mode.
A report from UKG this week confirmed the number of job changes for U.S. employees in September, following a drop in August. This is in line with the current job growth estimates of economists last month, said Dave Gilbertson, the company’s vice president.
“We are sure that (September’s job creation) has not accelerated as people expected, but we can be sure that it will not succeed,” he said.
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