January 17, 2022

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The new mathematical model assesses the impact of the 3rd dose omigran vaccine in the UK

The new mathematical model assesses the impact of the 3rd dose omigran vaccine in the UK

Scientists warn that more ‘real-world’ data is needed for more accurate predictions

Photo: Getty Images / BBC News Brazil

Preliminary studies by researchers in the United Kingdom estimate that the booster dose of the Govt vaccine provides about 85% protection against severe forms of the disease in the event of an infection caused by the Omigron variant.

The predictions were made on the basis of a mathematical model developed by scientists at Imperial College London, and since they are based on limited information about the new strain, they are still highly uncertain.

As “real-world” data are collected and made available to scientists, the efficacy of the Omigran vaccine will become clearer, and they will be able to understand the extent of the severity of the disease caused by the new variant, which is not yet fully known.

Nevertheless, it was considered important for the test authors to re-emphasize the importance of immunization in the public health effort to control the epidemic.

According to preliminary findings, the third dose may be slightly less safe than the vaccines given against earlier versions of the Covid – enough to get many more out of the hospital.

Last Thursday (16/12), the United Kingdom set a new record with 861,306 booster doses in its vaccination program (“Stimulant“) And third scales were used.

That means half of the UK’s adults already have a booster, said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Vaccines help teach the body to fight goiter. However, the current versions in use are not designed to combat the omigron variant, which has several mutations, many of which are used to attach the virus to human cells in a protein called spike.

Thus, there is concern that the new variant may somewhat escape from the vaccine provided by the vaccines available today.

To deal with the problem, people in the United Kingdom and other countries are advised to take a booster dose to increase the level of antibodies against the virus, called “neutralizing antibodies”, which have the ability to inhibit and neutralize. Virus binding with human cell receptor.

Studies show that they reduce the effectiveness of these antibodies by 20 to 40 times in the two-dose vaccinated population.

However, the effectiveness of the vaccine is also determined by “binding antibodies, which prevent SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes goiter) from entering the cells, and T-cells, which attack the infected cells. The production of antibodies,” says the journal Lancet.

An initial study by Imperial College, which has not yet been reviewed, only assumes that the effectiveness of the Omigran vaccine will decrease.

With a booster dose, protection against serious omigran diseases ranges from 80% to 85.9%, compared with 97% in Delta – another variant currently dominant in the UK.

However, other parts of the immune system, such as D-cells, can also fight goiter. Modeling does not evaluate this impact.

“The rest of the uncertainty is how severe the disease caused by the Omigran variant is compared to the disease caused by previous variants,” says Azra Ghani, one of those responsible for the study.

“Although it may take several weeks to fully understand this aspect, governments now need to put in place plans to mitigate potential vulnerabilities.”

“Our results demonstrate the importance of administering booster doses as part of a broader public health response.”

In the view of Clive Dix, former chairman of the UK Vaccine Task Force, “there is tremendous uncertainty in these estimates, and real-world data can only confirm the impact of Omigron Boosts if one more month is available. Patients in ICUs (intensive care units) and deaths”.

“We need to bring more current and future vaccines around the world.”

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