Experts warn that the conflict is likely to last longer and that the world needs to prepare for a global economic impact.
conflict between Russia And the Ukraine He completes 100 this Friday, third, and the balance remaining is devastating, not only for Ukrainians who have already scored, according to United NationsMore than 10 million refugees, including those who have left the country and internally displaced persons, more than three thousand dead and about 600 billion dollars in damage, as is the case for the rest of the world, which is shown in the food scenario. Shortage, rising fuel and oil prices and global turmoil. Although the confrontation in the past few days has been much colder, experts warn that this scenario cannot be used and that in the coming days we should already have a new escalation of the war, which has already entered its fourth month and appears overwhelmed. Russia .. in the worst geopolitical mistake made by a government Russian President Vladimir Putin.
For Leandro Consentino, professor of international relations at Insper, the conclusions that can be drawn from these first 100 days are the duration of the conflict itself. “A lot of people said it would take less than a week, and we got to 100 days with Russia mired in war,” he explains. And the cost turned out to be more expensive than Putin had imagined.” Another important point he mentioned is that the Russian leader’s plan to weaken North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), did not work and what he “managed to do was to make it stronger and attract the interest of other countries, such as Sweden and Finland”, which had always taken a neutral position, but as a result of the continuing conflict in Eastern Europe, the letter of request to join the alliance. International relations doctor Igor Lusina explains that “NATO, which has been lost, has gained a new reason to exist.”
However, although these are the consequences that “emerge”, Consentino says there are other factors that will not be resolved, such as: refugees, the economy and the disruption of global geopolitics. “The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not only about Europe, it shakes the international system,” said Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, whose government has linked Western sanctions against Moscow, especially financial ones, recently. All this confrontation spoiled diplomatic relations, and two countries became protagonists: China, ambiguous at war, and Turkey, which gained prominence for alignment both with and with Putin. Volodymyr Zelenskyand to be the main player in deciding whether to allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO or not. In addition, Constantino notes that she will soon have to decide between “alliance with Russia and the autocracy or with the West, as she was doing.”
For Lucina, the war in Ukraine is one of the “biggest geopolitical mistakes of Vladimir Putin’s government”. Within 100 days, they occupied 20% of the Ukrainian territory, and the areas controlled by Russian forces are “mainly the area stretching from Donbass to southern Ukraine”, bringing them closer to the border with Moldova, which also includes a breakaway region that is pro-Russian. “This plan B. has not succeeded in controlling all of Eastern Europe militarily, so he is trying to dominate the regions with Russian domination,” Lucena notes. Having withdrawn his forces from the Ukrainian capital at the end of March, when the last peace talks took place, Putin said he would concentrate his forces in the east of the country. Troops are currently focused on Severodonetsk and Lysichansk, Zelensky’s last strongholds in Luhansk.
The doctor in international relations explains that “the armed conflict must continue until the end of the year or the next, because there is no interest in any party to surrender,” adding that “Putin will not end the war.” And what we could see in the coming months is actually the invasion of Transnistria,” a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova. In the face of these facts, Lucena points out that, contrary to what was said in February, when the “military operation” was launched, “Russian forces are not advanced from a military point of view, as was imagined.
On Thursday, 2, the Ukrainian president said that the Russians occupy “nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory”. The ratio equates to 125,000 square kilometres, which includes annexed Crimea and territory held by pro-Moscow separatists since 2014. Although this appears to be an insignificant struggle for a long time, Consentino stresses the importance of careful analysis when talking about the issue. The subject, because “if we think of the violation of sovereignty, that is a lot”, now, “if we imagine the size of the Russian power, then a fifth in a hundred days indicates that they are not all they say.” This is the same line of thinking when we think about whether someone has an advantage in war. Experts say that from a military point of view, Russia is clearly better, however, with the constant help Ukraine has received from Western countries, it “becomes able to express significant resistance,” says Konsentino.
Lusina notes that Russia “did not imagine that it would be the target of many joint sanctions and that there would be retaliation from foreign companies,” which “take Western capitalism out of the country,” and, accordingly, mess with the economy and “generate impoverishment of the country.” And the population, because it removes the Russians from the global value chain and from international trade relations. ” Therefore, when we think from the economic point of view, due to international and diplomatic support, “which is also important at the moment,” says Lusina, Ukraine takes the lead.
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