December 3, 2022

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Understand how the crisis involving Ukraine and Russia can affect Brazil |  Globalism

Understand how the crisis involving Ukraine and Russia can affect Brazil | Globalism

if it was Russia Experts note that if Ukraine invades, as the United States and its allies have warned, there will be indirect consequences for countries not participating in the conflict, but having commercial partnerships with the Russians or the Ukrainians. Brazil will be affected mainly by the economy, and the most significant impact will be to increase pressure on inflation.

President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) travels to RussiaBrazil ranks second in the dispute, says Fernanda Magnotta, senior fellow at the US chapter of the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri). The official visit to Brazil has nothing to do with the international crisis.

“However, all countries influence each other in some way. Immediately there are economic implications that derive from the conflict: the supply of gas and higher fuel prices, for example, which will greatly affect countries like ours, where the price of fuel was already, in Recent months, responsible for inflationary pressure ”, notes the expert.

‘Villains of inflation’, fuel hits record sales in 2021

In an interview with GloboNews, Jose Marcio Camargo, chief economist at Opus Investimentos, said that oil last year It has already seen an increase of more than 40%, in addition, there will be a shock to food prices.

Products that Brazil imports more than Russia *

Other potassium chloride 1.35 billion
Diammonium hydrogen orthophosphate (monoammonium or monoammonium phosphate), whether or not mixed with diammonium hydrogen orthophosphate (diammonium or diammonium phosphate) 862 million
Urea, whether or not in aqueous solution, with a nitrogen (nitrogen) content of more than 45 % by weight, calculated as the anhydrous product in the dry state 508 million
Non-agglomerated bituminous coal 411 million
Ammonium nitrate, even in aqueous solution 377 million
* 2021 data in dollars

Magnotta says that Brazil relies heavily on Russia With regard to these inputs, the military operation in Europe will have a direct impact with regard to the supply of manure and fertilizers. He notes that “there is already some shortage in general in the economy because of the pandemic, and in the context of war this could be exacerbated.”

Most of the products exported from Brazil to Russia *

Soybeans, whether ground or not, excluding seed 343,286,654.00
Pieces and offal, edible from roosters / hens, frozen 167,164,904.00
Whole grains, unroasted and decaffeinated 132,723,847.00
Peanuts, whether or not mashed 129,731,662.00
Other cane sugars 124,262,859.00
* 2021 data in dollars

The consequences of foreign policy

Brazil has sought US support to become an extra-regional member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In the dispute, the Russian government calls for an end to NATO’s expansionist policy and for the organization’s commitment not to install offensive weapons near its borders.

In the event of a military conflict, the state will be responsible by the powers regarding its location – that is, it will have to take sides.

“This means making decisions about who to bother: on the one hand, Brazil is part of the Western alliance and there has been an attempt to reach a trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union for a long time, and on the other hand, China indicated a rapprochement with Russia‘ says Magnotta.

the Russia The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said on Tuesday (15) that some forces conducting military exercises have been withdrawn from the border areas with Ukraine and soldiers are returning to their bases.

Putin even said that a file Russia We do not want armed conflict: we want [uma guerra], or not? of course not. So we present our proposals to the negotiation process.”

Bolsonaro A meeting with the Russian leader will be held on Wednesday (16). For Putin, the meeting is interesting to prove it to RussiaHe goes It is not isolated and that the West does not fully agree with the policy of isolating it. However, the Ukraine crisis should not be addressed at the meeting.

Although the situation has not worsened in RussiaThere are already some political consequences in Brazil, according to Magnotta. With Bolsonaro’s trip, the president’s allies announced the withdrawal of troops As if the Brazilian had something to do with it So. “The ruling rule is taking over the facts that have nothing to do with Brazil to say that Bolsonaro may have roles in things he is not involved in,” she says.