War Karen Brown
Ford Collins (Reuters) – The 2022 planting campaign in the United States is already designed as a battle between higher production costs and higher new crop prices, and the U.S. government added 2 cents to the debate on Friday.
The Department of Agriculture’s official U.S. production estimates use acreage based on research. But the Flash rating for 2022 should be seen as an industry forecast rather than a traditional USDA forecast.
USDA 2022 US corn crops are estimated at 92 million acres, soybeans at 87.5 million and wheat at 49 million. This compares to 93.3 million for maize, 87.2 million for soybeans and 46.7 million for wheat by 2021.
These passages are from USDA’s annual long-term forecasts, which are 10 year supply and demand tables based on October data used for budget purposes. Most of the figures included, especially those beyond 2022/23, should not be taken as specific estimates.
The 2022 part numbers are derived from factors used by other researchers, including the economy and trends. Like other market forecasts, these targets are subject to change.
The first 2022 planting survey will take place in early March and the results will be released on March 31st. In the last 10 years, in 2017 and 2019, there were only twice as many March corn forecasts per million acres.
The excerpts for the USDA February AG Outlook are told the same way, but apparently with more up-to-date information. Six of the last 10 years have had less than one million acres of March corn forecasts since February, so performance is improving.
But when the October and February numbers were compared with the final plantings, the traditional analysis of the area planted at these stages often led to overestimation or underestimation. So analysts – including the USDA – at least now have a good chance of being a little misunderstood.
The USDA soybean number is similar to some other recent analyst perspective. However, some ideas were overwhelming, including the Twitter poll I conducted three weeks ago, in which the majority of voters wanted the soybean target for 90 million acres.
That survey suggested 2,022 acres less corn, which could be 91 million or less.
From these estimates and surveys last month, soybeans have expanded its profitability from a future standpoint. November 2022 Soybeans ended Monday 2.23 times more than December 2022 corn, the lowest in the year so far and the lowest in six years to date.
High fertilizer costs can greatly affect maize, which is a major concern. However, Cropwatch said this week that only one in 11 farmers – in North Dakota – plans to deviate from regular corn and soybean cycles by 2022.
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