The largest Russian military contingent, 64 km long, near the capital UkraineKiev did not move for more than three days, according to the UK Ministry of Defense.
But U.S. defense officials say Russia Wants to besiege and capture another city of three million inhabitants — use siege tactics if necessary.
Recently released satellite images, showing the size of the convoy, have raised fears of an attack.
But UK and US officials say logistics problems could slow its progress.
In an intelligence update on Thursday morning, the UK Ministry of Defense said the column had made “little clear progress over three days” and was 30 km from Kiev.
Several reasons may explain why the massive column consisting of armored vehicles, tanks and towed artillery stopped advancing towards the capital.
Among them, logistical issues, unpredictable Ukrainian resistance and low morale among Russian troops.
Russian train in the suburbs of Kiev – photo: BBC
According to the UK government, it causes mechanical malfunctions and congestion problems. It is said that there is a shortage of food and fuel and poor quality and poorly maintained tires can be a problem.
“There is a major logistics malfunction in the supply of fuel, food, spare parts and tires … they are stuck in the mud making it difficult for vehicles to get out,” said former General Sir Richard Barnes. Commander of the Armed Forces. From the UK to the BBC Radio 4’s Today show.
However, command and control issues – for example, communication through faulty radio networks and open networks – can cause major problems.
The Pentagon added Russia It had logistical issues and decided to deliberately reassemble and re-evaluate “the progress they did not make and how to make up for lost time”.
According to the Pentagon, Ukrainian opposition is believed to be hampering the progress of the convoy, although the Pentagon has stated that it has not been able to verify the claim completely independently.
Stronger Ukrainian opposition than expected could also affect Russian morale – another reason cited for the lack of convoy movement.
Former Secretary of Defense and National Security Council Oleksandr Daniluk said, “The general morale of those seated in this convoy is declining every day. UkraineThe Ukrainian military is being compared with a strong urge to protect its capital.
On Tuesday, a U.S. defense official told reporters that there were signs of mental health problems in the Russian military, which is using a large number of troops.
“Not all of them … did not even know they would be sent to a combat operation,” the official said.
Can the train be destroyed?
The Ukraine It has some aircraft capability and uses powerful Turkish-made drones to destroy other Russian convoys.
But according to General Barons, Kiev does not have the military strength to destroy a column of that size.
“They are good at attacking the convoy from the front and sides,” he said, but any wind damage would be very localized.
The Russia It will also have air defense that can shoot down Ukrainian targets.
Therefore, an air strike on a convoy would further damage the already defined air force Ukraine.
Some analysts have suggested that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should consider destroying the convoy, but it could be a major extension of a war between the two nuclear powers.
Western governments have repeatedly stated that they have no intention of directly engaging in conflict.
What will the train do next?
Despite all the problems reported, a large column of Russian military equipment is located north of Kiev, and at some point it is likely to progress.
“This large column will encircle and besiege the capital,” General Lord Donat, the former British military chief, told the BBC, adding that the Russians’ attempt to take Kiev Street down would cause much damage.
According to General Barnes, the convoy had many more military capabilities that could cause great damage to Kiev.
He hopes the convoy will become part of an army surrounding Kiev with a combination of artillery and infantry.
At this point, he said, the Russians would have two options. Or give a final warning to surrender, or realize that the capital will not give up and attack the second largest city in the world the same way they do. UkraineKharkiv.
For now, the people of Kiev may be waiting to see what the convoy will do next.
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