December 3, 2022

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What does the trend of omigran in the UK indicate about the epidemic in Brazil?

SÃO PAULO, SP (FOLHAPRESS) – Four weeks later, the United Kingdom may have already passed the worst phase of the new wave, having experienced the devastating eruption of Govt lawsuits caused by Omigron – due to high transfer power. Viral variant.

For experts, the trend of onomicron in the European country may be an indication of how variation works in Brazil: with a much larger and more active wave peak than before, but for a shorter period of time.

One month after it was first detected in South Africa, British data shows that this variant has not been found to pollute newcomers in the country as it is highly contagious. January 5 this year – more than quadrupled.

“What we see in the Omni is that it causes a higher wave peak than the previous one, it rises faster, but it’s shorter. It’s mostly due to the high transmissibility of the variant, which is highly contagious and responds 70 times faster than the delta,” said the medical epidemiologist in the United States. Says Denise Garrett, vice president of the Sabine Vaccine Company in.

Experts warn that new waves caused by micronutrients, although short-lived, are still uncertain about their effect in other countries, especially in countries such as Brazil, which do not have testing and monitoring policy and regulation rules. Reduce the transfer speed.

Since January 5, the moving average of new Govt cases in the UK has continued to fall, reaching 156,534 on Tuesday (11) – down nearly 15% in six days. The average number of hospital admissions continued to decline during this period, but the moving average of deaths remained high.

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“Omigran, in general, has high vaccine coverage, which can lead to less serious cases, but can still cause more severe symptoms and death for many. As many are infected, the number of deaths also increases, but these data take longer to appear because the condition can take a few days to worsen,” says Kovit-19. Leonardo Pastos, a member of the laboratory and a statistical modeling expert on infectious diseases, is a Fiocross researcher.

The moving average of hospital admissions in the United Kingdom rose 63% in the first seven days of January, but fell to 29% this Tuesday – that is, a steady increase, but a decline. With 239 new deaths per day, the moving average of deaths is at its highest level since November.

“The increase in these deaths in the United Kingdom is a reflection of what happened two or three weeks ago. That is what we see here in Brazil. The average number of cases has already increased and the number of deaths will increase in the coming days. It is different here,” he estimates.

According to experts, seeing the effects of overcrowding elsewhere in the world is a sign of what will happen in Brazil, as the country is experiencing a darkening of numbers about the Covid, and it is unclear how the variation is progressing. More than a month after the hacking attacks, there was no comprehensive testing policy in Brazil, in addition to instability in the health ministry’s notification systems.

“This indicates the trend of onomigran in other countries, but it is urgent to say that we will get the same result because we do not follow the same control measures. The UK has a strong policy of mass testing, so it can do that. Screening of contacts, proper isolation of confirmed cases. Says Tatiane Moraes, a health expert at Fiocruz.

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Although the United Kingdom’s response to Govt is different from Brazil, data from other countries also confirm what the behavior of the new variant will be. In South Africa, where it was first detected on November 25, Omigron triggered a burst of lawsuits within a month, but the numbers are now in a downward curve.

The number of cases has risen to 23,194 on December 16 – more than 25 times – from the day the African country detected the difference from 916 cases daily. Since then, infections have continued to decline, with 7,564 cases reported as of January 10.

Like the United Kingdom, covid deaths continue to rise in South Africa. At the height of the Omigron wave, the disease killed 31 people a day in the country. On January 10, 92 people were killed.

“The predicted behavior is the same, with an increase in cases at absurd speeds. Much higher than what we have seen in other genres. The drop in cases will be faster because Omigran no longer detects those who are susceptible to infection, and with severe consequences many will die of complications,” says Pastos.

The University of Washington estimates that Brazil could infect 1 million on January 23 and peak at 1.3 million in mid-February. This calculation also considers contaminated but untested, i.e. infections that do not appear in the country’s official data.

As of Wednesday (12), 88,464 Govt cases had been reported in Brazil, according to official data collected by the Press Federation. This is the highest number of victims since July last year. The moving average of deaths is constant, 123 deaths per day, an increase of 7% over two weeks ago.

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Experts also point out that due to Brazil’s regional and population size, the wave of Omigran infections can occur at different rates in each region.

Pastos exemplify the risk of an outbreak with more serious consequences in less vaccinated areas such as the North. Amaba, Roraima and Acre are at the bottom of the country rankings, with less than half of their population completing the cycle.

“To control cases quickly, we need to reduce the spread of the virus. This requires expanding the use of vaccines and masks, as well as testing for early diagnosis and isolation of cases. This is undoubtedly something we need to do. It is not working well in Brazil,” Garrett said.