October 16, 2021

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FGV: In an optimistic scenario, the Brazilian economy will not resume its previous trend of the epidemic until 2025

FGV: In an optimistic scenario, the Brazilian economy will not resume its previous trend of the epidemic until 2025

In order for the country to show the so-called “V-shaped recovery”, it will be necessary to practically double the growth rate for the period 2021-2022 from 2023



247 – In an optimistic scenario, the Brazilian economy will only show a so-called “V-shaped recovery” in 2025. For this to happen, the country will need to practically double the growth rate for the period 2021-2022 from 2023 onwards, calculations made by the FGV coordinator Ibre Macro Bulletin , Silvia Matos. information from Folha de Sao Paulo.

Only in the last quarter of 2025 will growth rates return to the levels observed in the pre-pandemic period, taking into account the growth trend observed from 2017 to 2019.

“We are still celebrating going back to the pre-pandemic level, but it’s not just about getting back to where you were in 2019. It has to be the V to go back in that trend,” the economist said. “Going back to the previous mediocre, it’s not possible to celebrate.”

Brazil averaged 0.1% growth in 2020. It should average 0.2% by the end of 2021 and 0.4% in 2022. As of 2023, growth should accelerate to 0, 7% on average ​(about 3% annually) to achieve a “V-shaped recovery” by 2025. International Institute of Statistics (IBGE) data shows that from 1996 to 2019, the average was 0.6%.

We will need a scenario of a new government, a new life, a turning page. In other words, with such enthusiasm: the exchange rate is going up, the resources are coming in, and there is a reform agenda,” the economist said.

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