December 5, 2022

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Ibovespa's future runs between the losses and the gains that await Copom and Fed;  The dollar is rising again

Ibovespa’s future runs between the losses and the gains that await Copom and Fed; The dollar is rising again

The future of Ibovespa runs between losses and gains in the first trades on Monday (2). The index opened with a gain of 0.4% but lost ground after a dip in the New York Premarket. May begins with a sense of anxiety: Investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision on the US interest rate on Wednesday. Here, on the same day, the central bank must also make a new exchange rate adjustment.

At 9:11 am (Brazil time), Ibovespa futures were up 0.26%, at 109,190 points.

The trade dollar rose 0.96% to R$4.989 in purchases and R$4,990 in sales.

In the interest futures market: DIF23, +0.02 p., at 13.04%; DIF25, +0.02 p., 12.06%; DIF27, +0.01 p., 11.86%; DIF29, -0.01 pages, 11.96%; and DIF31, -0.03 p., with a ratio of 12.06%.

IBC-Br stock rose 0.34% in February, worse than expected

After a negative week and month in April, Wall Street primary markets rehearsed for an early recovery, but reversed the signal with no concrete positive news to support the gains. Tomorrow begins the US Central Bank (Fed) monetary policy meeting and is expected to raise US interest rates by 0.5 percentage point.

The potential for monetary tightening is good for fixed incomes (because it increases their profitability) and the dollar and bad for riskier markets. The New York stock exchanges were also strongly affected by the latest corporate results, referring to the first quarter, especially companies operating in the technology sector.

In Europe, indicators are falling with the possibility of new bottlenecks in the production chain, a reversal of the new wave of Covid-19 and closures In China.

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This morning, the PMI was released for Germany, which fell to 54.6 in April, and the Eurozone, which fell to 55.5. Regarding the German economy, retail sales in the country fell 2.7% year-on-year in March, more than expected. The monthly change was negative by 0.1%, while expectations are for a rise of 0.3%.

The market tracks tensions over the war in Ukraine, with new bombings and the evacuation of cities.

Monday was a day of low liquidity on Asian stock exchanges, with Chinese stock exchanges closed until next Thursday, due to the Labor Day holiday. However, it was the news of the Asian Dragon that weighed on the markets. Official Manufacturing PMI for April decreased to 47.4the second consecutive month of contraction after March’s reading of 49.5, data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed on Saturday.

A private survey also showed a contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity, with the Caixin/Market manufacturing PMI at 46, down from the previous month’s reading of 48.1.

The current outbreak of Covid-19 in the country and closures It casts a shadow over the future of the Chinese economy and some economists believe that the country’s GDP could grow less than the United States in 2022.

in the part of goods, Oil fell sharply after the decline in Chinese activity and this may be reflected in the Brazilian actions in this sector today. The Chinese are the main importers of raw materials. Concerns about lower Chinese demand affect prices, which, on the other hand, could reflect a possible embargo on Russian oil by the European Union.

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Technical Analysis by Pamela Simizato, Investment Analyst and Daily Specialist at Clear Corretora

Ibovespa

“Friday trading tried to stay more long, but in the middle of the day it ended up with a good weight and left a candle indicating more sales, if today it breaks the low of Friday. Thursday and Friday candles have downside correction features. Next support is at 106000 area and it is still at Resistance area 108000.”

dollar

As far as the weekly chart at the 9 exponential average and the 200 arithmetic (arithmetic zone), Friday’s candle indicates new highs if the tops are broken today. It can still be said that it is in the process of rebounding from the fall, as the bearish move was very strong. Support: 4800 R$, Resistance: 5,060 Rs.



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