São Paulo – Focusing closely on the discussions surrounding income tax reform and the fiscal and political impacts it generates, as well as worse employment data from the United States, the public bond market traded by the Treasury Direct platform continues to rally this Friday morning (the 3rd).
In the morning’s first update, the focus was on the premiums offered by fixed-rate securities, which continued to advance up to six basis points, indicating a certain loss of strength compared to Thursday’s session.
For example, the interest paid on bonds due in 2031 increased from 10.64% in the previous session to 10.69% in the early morning. Meanwhile, the premium on fixed-rate bonds due in 2026 was 10.07%, down from 10.03% Thursday afternoon.
Among the inflation-linked securities, the real interest rate offered by IPCA + Treasury, due in 2055 and paying semi-annual interest, was 4.83%, in line with the ratio seen in the previous session, which was 4.82%. Similarly, the real interest rate on notes maturing in 2030 and 2045 was 4.67%, up from 4.62% the day before.
Check the rates and prices of all government bonds available for purchase in Tesouro Direto presented on Friday morning (03):
Attention is also focused on letters Roberto Campos Netto, President of the Central Bank, who is participating in the “Estadão Finanças Mais 2021”, at 9:00 am, and Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, who will speak at another event at 6:00 pm.
Campos Neto said, this morning, that the monetary authority’s view of the water crisis is that it involves the issue of price and its impact on inflation more than the issue of rationing. Therefore, Campos Neto confirmed that BC was closely monitoring this movement and would continue to follow it “in detail”.
On the political scene, the market remains attentive to the implications of the income tax reform and to the highlights approved yesterday, which lowered the The tax rate that will be applied to the distribution of dividends and dividends. The text voted on Wednesday (1) predicted a 20% RI in these cases. With the modification, only 15% will be deducted.
The approved text also brings changes in investment funds, trading on the stock exchange, as well as changes in the revised schedule and in the simplified discount. know more Here.
In a live broadcast the day before, Jenny Lee, strategist at XP, said markets were concerned about the approved primary text of income tax reform, mainly due to the extinction of interest on private equity (JCP) and the taxation of dividends. “JCP is a financial expense, so it reduces taxable income, and therefore the amount of tax the company pays.”
Commenting on dividends, the XP strategist said that with a 15% tax rate on dividends, companies would be encouraged to keep more profits to invest in the process itself, rather than distribute that capital to shareholders.
Investors are also closely following developments in President Jair Bolsonaro’s (non-partisan) speech regarding ICMS on fuel. The president, Thursday (02), said he will file a lawsuit with the Federal Supreme Court (STF) alleging that governors are not complying with the constitutional amendment in collecting state taxes.
In light of the increase in fuel prices, the president claims to have frozen the federal tax on inputs and transferred responsibility for the final price at the pumps to governors. As for conservatives, who must follow Constitutional Amendment No. 33 of 2001, every time they increase the fuel a little, they increase at the end of the line. This increase, he said, is nearly double what was originally recorded.
On the outside arena, the most important characteristic of economic news is in US employment data. According to the employment report (Payroll), 235,000 jobs were created in August. The numbers were provided on Friday (3) by the US Department of Labor.
The result was much less than expected. The average Refinitiv survey with economists forecast 750,000 jobs were created outside the agricultural sector last month, after 943 thousand jobs were created in July. However, forecasts varied widely, from 375 thousand to 1.027 million.
The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point, from 5.4% to 5.2%, in line with market expectations.
NS Payroll Investors have been waiting desperately, especially after Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of August, since the beginning of diminishing (Reducing the Bond Purchase Program by the Monetary Authority) will be contingent on labor market numbers.
In Asia, market attention is focused on data from Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) Composite from China released on Friday. According to a study conducted by IHS Markit in partnership with Caixin Media, the index fell from 53.1 points in July to 47.2 points in August. It’s the first time in 16 months that the index has indicated a decline – values below 50 indicate a contraction in activity.
The Services PMI, released in the same survey, fell from 54.9 in July to 46.7 in August. It was also the first time since April last year that index-measured activity indicated a contraction.
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