As the Omigran variant began to show signs of decline in the US and UK, the case curve fell sharply. This phenomenon is similar to what happened at the beginning of the year in South Africa, where the new strain was recorded for the first time, indicating that the infectious curve of Ômicron is lower than that of other species.
In the United States, on the east coast, especially in New York and New Jersey, where the virus strain first appeared, the case volume decrease was very sharp. On Jan. 9, the average number of moving cases in the state of New York reached 74,000, according to a New York Times survey. Eight days later, that number dropped to 48,000 cases – 35%.
However, with its continental dimensions, the United States records the simultaneous eruption of the Omicron in several states at different levels, which prevents national numbers from falling too sharply. Places that came after the variation will still be affected by the new strain.
In the United Kingdom, which accounts for one-fifth of the U.S. population, the decline in epidemics is the most consistent across the country. Out of 182,000 cases moving average on January 5th, 98,000 cases were reported in the UK on the 17th – a 46% drop.
Other European countries, such as Spain, France and Italy, where the new version of the virus arrived in mid-December, are already approaching the peak of epidemics, and according to mathematical models, the French are still recording records of new epidemics – only 465 yesterday.
Despite the drop in the UK and US, health officials in both countries point out that the number of victims is dangerously high and that the number of cases still to fall in two weeks is not allowed in the hospital. Another warning is that the herd’s immunity to Ômicron has not yet been caused by vaccination or natural infection.
The average number of Americans hospitalized with the corona virus was 157,000, an increase of 54% in two weeks. Anthony Fossie, the best epidemiologist under the administration of President Joe Biden, was asked at the World Economic Forum on Monday whether the epidemic could be controlled by 2022.
“It simply came to our notice then. “But that will only happen if we do not get another variant that avoids the immune response.” According to Fassi, the evolution of the infection is yet to be determined. “Answer: We do not know,” he said.
William Honez, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s TH San School of Public Health, said: “Although it is too early to know how this record wave will shape the epidemic, it will have some impact.” We expect the new waves to be mild. It is not herd immunity because outbreaks are still possible. However, their effects will be minimal. “
One difference from what happened to the US and the UK in South Africa in December is that, as far as South Africa is concerned, hospital admissions are declining rapidly. Similar scenes have been recorded in other parts of the world, such as Mumbai, India.
“South Africa has seen a sharp rise in the number of explosion cases, but some require hospitalization or oxygen support. In addition, the drop in cases is steep,” said Shashank Joshi, a member of the government’s working group. Indian. This is how the wave has been going on in Mumbai so far.
In the American case, again, the high number of vaccines may explain the hospitalization. “The vaccination rate in Mumbai is high. The United States has a strong lobby against the vaccine, and data analysis shows that the vast majority of hospital admissions and deaths are unvaccinated,” Joshi said.
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