October 27, 2021

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USDA: Quarterly US soybean stocks came in higher than expected and Chicago...

USDA: Quarterly US soybean stocks came in higher than expected and Chicago…

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its quarterly grain inventory for September 1, 2021 this Thursday (30). Corn and wheat brought in numbers matching market expectations, while soybean prices rose. Reflecting this picture, oilseed futures yielded more than 30 points on the Chicago Stock Exchange early this afternoon. Corn is also retreating, however, more infections are contained.

“In short, the new crop rank is a bit more comfortable, and more soybeans and corn in the opening stocks for the 2021/22 crop, which now starts in September,” explains Eduardo Fanin, market analyst at Agrinvest Commodities.

soy

Quarterly US soybean stocks as of September 1 were reported by the USDA at 6.97 million tons, versus expectations of 3.95 to 5.5 million, averaging 4.74 million tons.

Although higher than expected, US stocks are much lower than they were on September 1, 2020, when they were reported at 14.29 million tons.

As of June 1, 2021, the figure was 20.87 million tons.

corn

The USDA reported quarterly corn stocks at 31.4 million tons, against market expectations of 25.35 million to 31.80 million tons. The forecast average was 29.34 million.

A year ago, corn stocks were in the same situation 48.74 million tons on June 1, three months ago, 104.45 million tons.

Wheat

In wheat, US quarterly stocks recorded 48.44 million tons, while expectations ranged between 48.31 and 54.37 million tons, with an average of 50.40 million tons. Three months ago, stocks were 22.97 and a year ago 58.73 million tons.

Crop Review 2020/21

As is usual for this time of year, the USDA is conducting a final crop review to begin the new study on September 1. These revisions are partly reflected in the numbers reported on US stocks.

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“The corn and soybean marketing season is over and the balance has been completely revised
Completed. This process, which is normal at this time of year, has led to revisions in acreage, production and
production for the 2020 season,” said a note in the US Department of State’s quarterly inventory report.

US corn production for 2020/21 was revised down by 1.8 million tons (71 million bushels) and soybean by 2.2 million tons (80.8 million bushels). The productivity of oilseeds increased from 56.26 to 57.16 bags per hectare.

“The report was bearish and bullish for wheat only. A question was asked by the USDA for some time and it responded, explaining that they reviewed the 2020/21 crop and they ‘found’ 80.8 million bushels more, which is why the soybean group director of Laboro, Ginaldo explained D’Souza, that the stock has grown larger. That’s the reality.