war in Ukraine Increased pressure on the price of oil in the international market. Economists estimate that this rise is not a one-off, and the consequences of this confrontation are likely to continue off the battlefield for many years to come.
war in Ukraine It’s not about Ukraine Just. has not been. When the Russian forces crossed the border, the rest of the world saw that the price of a barrel of oil reached $100. And that was just the beginning.
The Europe and the we They responded with economic sanctions that impeded trade with Russia – A major oil exporter – And the price exploded: nearly $130 on the London Stock Exchange.
But in the days that followed, it seemed that supply and demand for oil would balance out. On the other hand, peace negotiations reinforced expectations for the end of the war. On the other hand, the China – A major consumer of energy – issued a decision to close important economic centers after breaking a record in cases of Covid. The barrel was trading back below $100.
It didn’t last long. in the following days, President RussiaAnd the Russian President Vladimir Putinmade clear that in agreement with Ukraine Not soon, and the price has gone up again.
“There is a direct relationship as far as Russia Being the second largest oil producer in the world, it benefits a lot from the increase in prices in the international market. It is very clear in this context that the higher the price of a barrel of oil, the higher the price of a barrel Russia Julianna Inhas, Professor of Economics and Finance at Insper, explains.
Effects of war on Ukraine Oil price exceeded. The conflict has already begun to affect international relations. European countries have begun to search for alternatives to the energy sources that come from them Russia ending current dependency by 2030.
The longer the penalties, the greater the risk that Russia Loss of ground in international oil transactions. This Saturday (19), the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic Russia, Sergey Lavrov made an effort to remember the importance of the state in the balance of this market. He said the current relations between the OPEC+ countries – which bring together major oil producers – will remain essential, even as new participants in the global oil trade emerge.
“What we have been seeing in recent weeks on the European continent is a movement and a historic transformation of the energy sovereignty plan of Europe This is very important. This tends to expand the economic relations between China And the Russia. The Russia To become a major supplier of energy as well as of commodities, especially grain, to the Chinese market – as well as to India itself,” says Philip Laureiro, Professor of International Relations at the University of the South Pacific.
Even before the war is over, before the army declares itself victorious, defeat is already taken for granted.
“This war UkraineThis is clearly the biggest strategic mistake Putin has made in more than two decades of his career. will end with Europe More united, with NATO stronger, and therefore, he will come out of this war less secure than he entered it. We need to understand this war from the European point of view as the equivalent of 9/11 to the Americans. What happened on 9/11 was not just the fall of the Twin Towers. What happened was a change in Americans’ sense of security, and this reorientated American foreign policy for years to come. Let us now see the same in the case Europe‘,” says Carlos Gustavo Poggio, Professor of International Relations at the FAAP.
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