US index futures and European markets are lower this morning on Wednesday (30), while Asian stocks closed mostly in the positive range, amid uncertainty over progress on the Eastern European ceasefire and fears of a curve.
Hopes for a possible ceasefire boosted gains in major markets in the previous session after Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said the country would “significantly” reduce military activity near the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
However, doubts about the pledge arose as the Russian military began moving some of its forces in Ukraine away from areas around Kiev to positions elsewhere in Ukraine, and Pentagon press secretary John Kirby warned that troop movements did not amount to a withdrawal.
Ukrainian President Zelensky also warned later in the day that Russia “cannot be trusted,” although he admitted there were “positive signs” in Tuesday’s talks.
Investors are watching the bond market as US 5- and 30-year Treasury yields reversed on Monday for the first time since 2016. Historically, this reversal was a sign of a recession approaching, although it wasn’t a good indicator of when a recession would come.
In terms of indicators, the latest revision of US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021 has been released. The Refinitiv consensus indicates an increase of 7.1% – the previous revision has expanded by 7% in this period. The Job Creation Survey (ADP) will also be released, with 450,000 jobs expected to be created in March.
On the domestic agenda are the IGP-M for March (8:00 AM) and the Producer Price Index for February (9:00 AM). In addition, the central government should announce a deficit in February (10:30 am).
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1. Global Scholarships
US futures fell this morning after the Dow and Standard & Poor’s 500 indexes posted gains for a fourth consecutive day, as fears of a yield curve inversion sparked recession fears and investors continued to monitor developments in Ukraine.
Watch the performance of futures markets:
- Dow Jones Future (USA), -0.32%
- S&P 500 futures contract (US), -0.38%
- Nasdaq Future (USA), -0.51%
Asian markets mostly closed on positive ground, with Chinese stocks leading the gains regionally.
The Shanghai Composite in mainland China is up 1.96% on the day to 3,266.60, while the Shenzhen component is up 3.1% to 12,263.80.
- Shanghai SE (China) + 1.96%
- Nikkei (Japan), -0.80%
- Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), +1.39%
- Kospi (South Korea) + 0.21%
European markets fell after the previous rally, following the latest round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, with the aim of finding a solution to the conflict. There are doubts about Russia’s real willingness to negotiate a ceasefire.
- FTSE 100 (UK), -0.09%
- Dax (Germany), -1.48%
- CAC 40 (France), -0.94%
- FTSE MIB (Italy), -0.85%
Oil prices have recouped some of the losses recorded on Tuesday, amid tight supplies and increased prospects of new Western sanctions against Russia, even as peace talks between Moscow and Kiev showed signs of progress.
- West Texas Intermediate crude, +2.15%, at $106.49 a barrel
- Brent crude rose 1.84% to $112.26 a barrel
- Iron ore traded on the Dalian Stock Exchange rose 2.99% to 895 yuan, or 141.03 US dollars.
- Bitcoin, -0.52% at $4,7387.52 (from 24 hours ago)
Wednesday is marked by UK Consumer Confidence, IGP-M (8:00 AM) and Brazil PPI (9:00 AM), German Inflation (9:00 AM), and US Private Employment Change (9:15). AM)), Brazil credit stocks diverged (9:30 AM).
In the US, the latest revision of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021 has also been released. The Refinitiv consensus indicates an increase of 7.1% – the previous revision has expanded by 7% in this period.
It still has data on oil stocks from the EIA (11:30 AM), industrial production in Japan (20:50 PM) and China PMI (22:30 PM).
8:00 am: FGV releases IGP-M, with Refinitiv consensus up 1.13% m/m and 14.08% y/y
8:00 am: Service survey for the month of March
8:00 am: Trade Survey for March
9 am: February IPP
10:30 a.m.: Central government public debt, with Refinitiv consensus on a deficit of R$13.1 billion.
9 am: Consumer Price Index for the month of March
United States of America
9:15 am: March job creation – ADP survey, with 450,000 jobs expected, according to Refinitiv consensus
9:30 a.m.: Q4 GDP, with Refinitiv forecast 7.1% YoY increase
11:30 am: Oil inventories are expected to fall by 1.558 million barrels
3. Lula talks about fuel price policy reversal and divestment from Petrobras
Former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) once again criticized Petrobras’ pricing policy and advocated the return of investments in refineries, in order to avoid exposure to world oil prices. In a debate organized by the Unique Federation of Oil Workers (FUP) and the Workers’ Party yesterday (29), Lula followed the line of his speech in Niterói, when he promised, if elected, “Brazilian” fuel prices, today at the international level. parity.
TSE expands the number of ballots to be scrutinized in the elections
The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) yesterday (29) increased the number of electronic voting machines that will be submitted for the so-called “integrity test” on Election Day.
In the last election, 100 pots were randomly drawn to pass the review. Now, this amount will be tripled in another initiative by the Electoral Court to increase the transparency of the voting system.
The final version of the fake news PL must be delivered today
After meeting with members of Bolsonaro’s government, Rapporteur of the bill criminalizing the dissemination of disinformation (“False News”), Representative Orlando Silva (PCdoB-SP) is preparing a final version of the opinion, which will be delivered today to the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Arthur Lira (PP-AL). ).
Arthur Lyra wants to vote on this text soon to set clear rules against the spread of “fake news” during the 2022 election campaign.
Congress and Entrepreneurs Crystallize Expansion of Simples Nacional
With the support of the Parliamentary Front for Entrepreneurship, the Confederation of Trade Associations in Brazil (CACB) will launch tomorrow the national campaign “Miss Simples” to approve the amendment of the corporate framing project schedule at Simples and Individual Microempreendedor (MEI). Corrects the inflation schedule since 2008 and proposes expanding the annual revenue limit from R$4.8 million to R$8.4 million for companies to pay taxes through Simples, a simplified tax system.
Within the framework of the project, the limit for micro-enterprises increases from 360,000 reais to 847 thousand reais, and for MEIs it rises from 81,000 reais to 142 thousand reais. The project is being processed in the room and a new opinion will be provided tomorrow.
Last Tuesday (29), Brazil recorded 282 deaths and 32,100 cases of Covid-19 virus in 24 hours, according to information received from the Media Consortium, at 8 pm.
The 7-day moving average for Covid deaths in Brazil is 217, a 37% decrease compared to the 14-day level before that.
The seven-day moving average of new cases was 28,327, which is a 30% decrease from the level 14 days ago.
It has reached 160,317,989 people fully vaccinated against Covid in Brazil, which is equivalent to 74.63% of the population.
The number of people who received at least the first dose of vaccines was 175.690,569, which is 81.78% of the population.
A booster dose was administered to 764,25295 people, or 35.58% of the population.
5. Corporate radar
IMC (MEAL3) announces results for the fourth quarter of 2021 before opening. After closing, the numbers come from Cruzeiro do Sul (CSED3), Desktop (DESK3), Eletromidia (ELMD3), Kora Saúde (KRSA3), Mobly (MBLY3), Orizon (ORVR3) and Priner (PRNR3).
The Executive Board of Bradespar will propose a dividend payment of R$600 million, of which R$1.433324328 per ordinary share and R$1,576656761 per preferred share. The proposal will be voted on on April 29.
Shareholders registered in the company’s records will benefit on April 29, and the shares will be trading “without dividends” from May 2.
simig (CMIG4) It recorded a net income of R$ 963 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 (Q4 of 21), 24.3% lower than Q4 of 2020.
Adjusted income was R$993 million in Q421, an increase of 68.3% compared to Q4 of 2020.
D’Or Network (RDOR3)
The Ready Door Sao Luiz ([ativo=RDOR3), maior rede privada de assistência médica integrada do país, registrou lucro líquido de R$ 419,5 milhões no quarto trimestre de 2021 (4T21), o que representa um crescimento de 38,5% em relação ao mesmo trimestre de 2020.
Copasa (CSMG3) It recorded a net income of R$64.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 (Q4 21), which represents a decrease of 76.1% compared to the same quarter of 2020.
SBF Group (SBFG3)
SBF Group (SBFG3) It recorded a net income of R$288.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 (Q4 of 21), reversed a net loss of R$4.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Qualicorp (3 . quality)
Qualicorp (QUAL3) It recorded a net income of R$50.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 (Q4 of 21), a decrease of 25.2% compared to R$67.6 million measured in the fourth quarter of 2020.
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