September 24, 2023

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Ibovespa futures fall, in line with foreign exchanges and with lower commodities

Ibovespa futures fall, in line with foreign exchanges and with lower commodities

Ibovespa futures are trading lower at the start of this Thursday’s trading session (12), following the performance of major US contracts in pre-market. At 9:20 a.m., the contract due in June was down 1.02% to 104,485 points.

In the US, the futures contracts for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices were down 0.77%, 1.04% and 1.64%, respectively. There, investors continue to reflect the fact that consumer inflation advanced 0.3% in April, above expectations of 0.2%.

Markets blew negative while still absorbing data from US Consumer Inflation (CPI)which came in above expectations and keeps alive the possibility of the Fed accelerating or prolonging the US interest rate-tightening cycle,” comments XP Investimentos, in morning call.

In Europe, indicators fell sharply. The German DAX is down 1.70%. The UK’s FTSE is down 1.93%. The French CAC 40 index fell 2.24 percent. The Eurozone STOXX 600 Index is down 1.63%.

There, in addition to weighing the overall sentiment from still-strong inflation in the US, investors are also reflecting on the release of weaker-than-expected data in the UK – the country earlier released industrial production, services numbers and a GDP preview disappointing the consensus.

In Asia, the prospect of higher interest rates weighed on technology companies, which were the main declines – China’s Alibaba (Papa 34) by more than 6.5% and Japan’s SoftBank, which is known to invest in companies in the sector, fell 8%.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange, with less exposure to technology, was close to stabilizing. However, Hong Kong’s HSI is down 2.24%. Japan’s Nikkei is down 1.77%. South Korea’s Kospi was down 1.63%.

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In addition to the possibility of higher interest rates in the United States, in Asia, the fact that the monetary authority in Hong Kong has announced a buyback of 1.59 billion HK dollars to strengthen the local currency weighs on the indicators, which should withdraw liquidity from the economy. Sweetened.

In commodities, iron ore saw its price drop by 1.36% at the port of Dalian, with a ton trading at $117.17. Crude oil also declined, with Brent crude trading at $105.56.

Future Ibovespa reflects service data as well as inflation

In Brazil, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) announced that in March, The volume of services in the country grew by 1.70% On a monthly basis, compared to the consensus at 0.80%.

Although noting that the Brazilian economy remains hot – with the service sector accounting for nearly 70% of national GDP – the index can also squeeze the interest rate curve, putting pressure on inflation. Yesterday, the same International Statistical Institute (IBGE) announced that inflation in April rose 1.06% above consensus, despite slowing down relative to March.

The medium- and long-term yield curve is flattening, after opening slightly higher at the start of the session. The DI yield due in January 2023 rose two basis points to 13.34%, and the 2025 DI yield fell four points to 12.40%. In the long term, the direct investment indices for January 2027 and 2029 are experiencing a decrease in their rates by 0.06 percentage points, to 12.24% and 0.05 percentage points, to 12.35%, respectively.

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The dollar advanced again above the real, with futures up 0.85% to 5.22 Brazilian real. The trade dollar advanced 0.81%, at 5.185 Brazilian reals in purchases and 5.186 Brazilian reals. The DXY is up 0.56%.

Technical Analysis by Pamela Simizato, Investment Analyst and Daily Specialist at Clear Corretora


“The index had a bullish candle yesterday, but with a much higher wick. This tells us that, at the moment, it is just a re-up movement. To think about the purchases, we need days with high displacement and preferably above the last (intermediate) high, which is at 108,370 points. “.


“US dollar futures remain above the R$5.13 support and as long as it is above this point it is still pointing up. Next resistance is at R$5,270. If it returns below this support, we could see a resumption of the downtrend” .

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