Ibovespa futures fell more than 1% and the dollar rose again; Lockdowns in China and US interest rate hikes are fueling risk aversion

Ibovespa futures start in the last week of April, continuing the losses recorded in the past sessions. The index tracks the performance of the New York futures market and European stock exchanges. Investors fear that a more aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve on monetary tightening could lead to a recession in the US. To make matters worse, the potential for a slowdown in the Chinese economy is growing in the market, with Covid-19 cases advancing in the country and new ones. closures.

In this sense, the Brazilian stock market tends to suffer from the negative pressure of goods Throughout the day’s session. Oil prices are down more than 3%, with Brent crude trading around $102 and WTI trading around $98.

“But oil prices are not expected to fall below $90 a barrel, given the possibility of an EU embargo on Russian oil amid the deepening crisis in Ukraine,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa of Nissan Securities. CNBC.

Concerns about Chinese demand are also affecting iron ore prices in the international market. On the Dalian Stock Exchange, prices fell more than 10%.

At 9:09 a.m. (Brazilian time), the June expiring Ibovespa futures contract was down 1.49% to 111,180 points.

The trade dollar, which rose 4% last Friday, with the general sense of risk aversion in the markets, rose again on Monday. The US currency rose 0.9% to R$4.847 in buying and R$4.848 in selling.

Future interest rates fall: DIF23, stable, at 12.98%; DIF25, -0.06 p., by 12.08%; DIF27, -0.04 p., 11.92%; DIF29, -0.03 p., by 12.05%; and DIF31, -0.04 pages, at 12.15%.

US futures indices are also indicating that US stocks should open lower, after last Friday’s losses. In addition to reflecting the risk of a recession in the US economy, in the event of more severe than expected adjustments in interest rates, Wall Street is preparing for a week full of corporate results, including state balance sheets. senior technicianssuch as Microsoft, Amazon and Apple.

The market is still watching Twitter, which is said to be re-examining Elon Musk’s takeover bid after the billionaire investor revealed it had raised $46.5 billion in funding, according to a Wall Street Journal report, citing unnamed sources.

Dow Jones futures are down 0.63%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down 0.79% and 0.83%, respectively.

European stocks are running sharply lower, even as elections in France ease. Current French President Emmanuel Macron I managed to defeat the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, and will remain in office for another four years. Macron’s victory was fierce. On the other hand, the situation of the war in Ukraine, which lasted two months, seems to be getting worse.

Quoted from negotiators for the newspaper financial times He published a report that Russian President Vladimir Putin has abandoned diplomatic negotiations and taken a more belligerent stance, ready to seize as much of the Ukrainian territory as possible. The change in situation was to come after the Russian ship Moskva sank in the Black Sea and faced accusations of war crimes.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 was down 1.8%.

In Asia, stocks also closed sharply, with cases of Covid-19 spreading rapidly across China. This is prompting the country to adopt an increasing number of restrictive policies. The Chinese have adopted the zero Covid policy which is why they have imposed a series of closureswhich threatens the global demand perspective in particular goodswhich operate less today.

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Technical Analysis by Pamela Simizato, Investment Analyst and Daily Specialist at Clear Corretora

Ibovespa

“On Friday we got a “confirmation” candle for a breakout of the 115000 support level. The next support point is at the 109,000 area, and to believe in a short-term downtrend, a lower top from the previous high (121500) and a breakout from the bottom would be interesting!”

dollar

“The dollar closed in a resistance area at R$4.805, and we have the first sign of a possible recovery to correct the downside movement on the weekly chart. It is still too early to say how this move will be, but there is room for a correction up to 5,115 and 5,270 and 5,425 Brazilian Real”.

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