Sao Paul – The Ibovespa There is another session of big swings this Wednesday (17). Yesterday the index cleared its cumulative high last week closing at 1.82%, with expectations for inflation in Brazil and the country’s economic growth deteriorating, also in the wake of data released by IBC-Br for September. Earlier, the stock market saw a rise of about 1% after the open, but soon focused on the gains. Today, the Ministry of Economy released new forecasts for indicators with the November release of the Macroeconomic Bulletin and the updated version of the Macroeconomic Forecast.
The government has made them worse official forecast As for inflation and the economy in both 2021 and 2022, though, it remained more upbeat than the market in terms of activity.
Now, it is estimated for a 5.1% increase in GDP this year, compared to 5.3% previously. For the next year, expectations rose to 2.1% from 2.5% in September.
to me IPCA hypertrophyThe economic team’s estimate rose from 7.9% to 9.7% in 2021, and from 3.75% to 4.70% in 2022. The center of the inflation target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN) was 3.75% this year and 3.5%. The next has a margin of tolerance of 1.5 pips more or less.
Yesterday, the Central Bank’s Focus report put forward upward revisions to inflation and lower GDP. From 9.33% last week, the median forecast for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) was 9.77%. For 2022, the forecast increased from 4.63% to 4.79%.
In terms of GDP, the forecast was lowered from 4.93% to 4.88% in 2021; For 2022, it was reduced from 1% to 0.93%.
In this Wednesday session, Ibovespa options maturity on B3 should also be highlighted, which could add volatility to the index.
In the political news, attention is still focused on negotiations over the Precatório’s Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) in the Federal Senate.
President Jair Bolsonaro (without party) stated that Congress’ approval of the PEC would open the way for amendments to be granted to federal civil servants, justifying the potential increase in response to wage freezes and inflation.
Currently, the government spends about R$300 billion annually on salaries. A source at the Ministry of Economy told the International News Agency that an increase of only 1% means, moreover, a cost of 3 billion R$. Reuters.
If approved, the PEC dos Precatório will open up space to spend R$91.6 billion in 2022, according to an estimate by the Ministry of Economy, but of this total, only about R$10 billion will be free, since most of the resources will be allocated to Auxílio Brasil in the amount of R$400. Brazilian and to modernize pension expenditures amid rising inflation.
Aid payment begins on Wednesday for those already registered with Bolsa Família. However, the additional amount can only be distributed to the beneficiaries with the consent of the club. The government hopes to solve the problem by next month and pay the difference retroactively.
In the company’s calendar, investors reflect the latest results of the third-quarter balance sheet season, with numbers like Eletrobras and Méliuz (see below at corporate radar).
At 10:51 a.m. (Brazilian time), the Ibovespa index was trading slightly down 0.07% to 104331 points. Ibovespa futures due in December 2021 were down 0.01% at 105,010 points.
The Trade Dollar cut its losses slightly down 0.05% to R$5.496 on purchase and R$5.497 on sale. Dollar futures in December 2021 fell 0.20% to R$5.509.
In the interest rate futures market, DI for January 2023 drops 1 basis point to 12.03%; DI for January 2025 traded up six basis points at 11.91%; The January 2027 DI was up seven basis points at 11.82%.
In the US, futures indexes are running mixed trends, but they are close to stabilizing. Dow futures fell 0.15%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.09%; Nasdaq futures rose 0.04%. Yesterday, the New York stock exchanges rose sharply after the release of better-than-expected data on retail trade and industry.
According to a statement from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the strength of economic activity in the US, combined with above-target inflation, could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOmc) to accelerate the pace reduction. to buy stock.
European stock exchanges are operating near stability on Wednesday. The Stoxx 600 Index, which aggregates shares of 600 companies from all major sectors in 17 European countries, rose 0.14%.
Eurozone inflation was confirmed in October at 4.1%, more than double the European Central Bank’s target. In the UK, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% in the same month, the highest in nearly a decade, as energy costs rose.
Oil prices in the international market are dropping again today. A barrel of Brent crude fell 0.78% to $81.79. West Texas Intermediate crude is down 1.2% to $79.79.
Several Asian stocks closed lower after data indicated a decline in the pace of Japanese exports in eight months. The October index rose by 9.4%, according to information from the Ministry of Finance. However, in the previous month it was up 13%. Car exports decreased by 36.7%, which contributed to the decline in the shares of companies in the automotive sector in the country.
South Korea’s Kospi was the negative lead, and mainland China shares were the positive lead.
Eletrobras (ELET3; ELET6) It recorded a net profit of R$964.561 million in the balance sheet for the third quarter, numbers 65.7% lower than the profit of R$2.814 billion a year ago. This decrease is attributed to adjustments in the reservation of contingency provisions amounting to R$9.434 billion.
According to the company, the revision of the estimates for the provision of compulsory loans, which totaled nearly R$8.926 billion in the third quarter, came after a ruling by the Supreme Constitutional Court (STJ) on internal appeal in Special Appeal No. 1.734,115 / PR and last. Approval of unfavorable reports in fiscal year 2021.
In addition, the state-owned company reported that it had paid, yesterday (16), the first payment, in the amount of 256.5 million Brazilian riyals, in reference to a judicial settlement that took place after mediation procedures, with the aim of ending lawsuits related to the discussions. About the contracts for the purchase and sale of energy, proposed by ElPaso Rio Negro against Eletrobras and Amazonas Geração e Transmissão, totaling R$567 million.
The amount paid by Eletrobras will subsequently be repaid by Eletronorte, which acquired AmGT in 2020. The value of the lawsuits was provided by Eletronorte.
The agreement allowed R$101.4 million to be reversed in the third-quarter results of 2021, in order to reflect the more updated forecast for fiscal disbursement.
waterways in brazilHBSA3)
Hidrovias do Brasil (HBSA3) posted a consolidated loss of R$66.8 million in the third quarter of 21, seven times more than the R$8.5 million loss reported in the same period in 2020.
Melius (cash 3)
A Melius (Cash 3) pIt recorded a consolidated net loss of R$2,950 million, reversed a profit of R$4.733 million from the previous year.
The parent company’s loss was even larger, at R$4.539 million, reflecting a profit of R$4.733 million.
A Gafisa (GFSA3) Declared net income of 6.1 million BRL in the quarter and reflects the loss for the same quarter of 2020.
Terra Santa Agro (TESA3)
Terra Santa Agro (TESA3) reported a net loss of R$354,000 at 3TRI, compared to a net income of R$4.44 million in the same quarter of 2020.
Iochpe Maxion (MYPK3)
A Iochpe Maxion (MYPK3) Reversal of the loss presented a year ago and recorded net income of 177,016 million Brazilian riyals in the third quarter of 2021 (3TRI21). In the same quarter of 2020, the loss amounted to R$18.877 million.
BR Advisory Partners (BRBI11)
BR Consulting Partners (BRBI11) Provided net income of R$41,761 million in the third quarter of 2021 (3TRI21), which represents 102.1% more than R$20.659 million last year.
good crop seedsSOJA3)
Good Seed Harvest (SOYB3) It recorded a net income of R$88,087 million in the third quarter of 2021 (3TRI21), an increase of 227.7%, or more than three times what was measured in the same period last year, when it was R$26,884 million.
A Viveo (VVEO3) Reported net income of 61.255 million Brazilian riyals In the third quarter of 2021 (3TRI21), which is an increase of 140.6% compared to the same period last year, when it amounted to R$25,456 million.
Oncology clinics (ONCO3)
Oncoclínicas (ONCO3) recorded a net income of R$150.8 million at 3TRI21. Excluding the positive non-cash adjustment, the adjusted net income for the period was R$47.3 million, compared to R$37.0 million year on year, an increase of 27.7%.
Petrobras (PETR4) yesterday (16) with Potiguar E&P, a subsidiary of PetroReconcavo, signed contracts for the flow and processing of natural gas produced on land by Potiguar E&P in the state of Rio Grande do Norte.
The contracts include the assignment of the use of the Guamaré natural gas flow system (SEG Guamaré), the use of the natural gas processing plant in the natural gas processing unit – UPGN Guamaré, as well as the sale of Potiguar E&P’s natural gas condensate (C5+).
As a note, the agreement enables direct service to the market by Potiguar E&P, which won the public invitation to supply gas executed by Companhia Potiguar de Gás (Potigás) and signed a two-year contract, with a sale of 236,000 m3/day. of natural gas as of January 2022.
Shared infrastructure company IHS Holding has completed the control purchase of TIM’s optical networking unit. Previously called Fiberco, the unit has already been renamed I-Systems.
IHS now owns a 51% stake in I-Systems and TIM the remaining 49%.
The operator received R$ 1.09 billion for the sale of the tranches.
A JBS (JBSS3) confirmed the issuance of $2 billion in five- and ten-year primary bonds, Being US$1.0 billion, through its subsidiary JBS Finance Luxembourg, and US$1.0 billion, through its JBS USA subsidiaries.
JBS intends to use the 2027 Notes resources to refinance short-term obligations, as well as to cover other general corporate purposes.
The 2032 bond will be used to redeem the balance of the old bonds with a yield of 7000% and maturity in 2026 issued by the JBS USA Food Company.
According to a press release, this is JBS’s first after achieving its full investment grade, which was achieved after Fitch and Moody’s put it in that rating.
Braskem has approved the fifth issuance of the company’s bonds in two series for a total amount of R$840 million.
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