December 2, 2023

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Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) shares jump with news of privatization project;  Analysts celebrate but have doubts about PL

Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) shares jump with news of privatization project; Analysts celebrate but have doubts about PL

São Paulo – Acts of Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) rose sharply, with PETR4 assets up nearly 7%, after news from CNN Brasil about progress in studies on the company’s privatization, which was later confirmed by a government leader in the Senate. PN Securities jumped 6.84% to R$29.04, while PETR3 Assets posted a 6.13% gain to R$29.61.

According to CNN, the plan being analyzed is to prepare a bill that would allow the union to begin disposing of the company’s shares in order to lose control. The federal government controls 50.5% of the common stock (with voting rights).

The government will continue the so-called “golden quota”, allowing it to veto some of the oil company’s operations as well as appointing the head of the company.

The post notes that the economic team advocates Petrobras’ move to Novo Mercado, ending the difference between ON and PN shares.

The government will then start selling shares for shares currently owned by BNDES and BNDESPAR. The goal would be to turn Petrobras into a “company”, with powdered capital, like what Eletrobras is (ELET3;ELET6).

Later, Fernando Bezerra, head of the government in the Senate, confirmed to journalists the information that there are studies of a bill that would pave the way for the sale of government shares in Petrobras, with the loss of state control.

Credit Suisse notes that the news is positive because it sparks discussion about possible privatization. However, the formula mentioned in the news while maintaining the government’s CEO nomination and veto power is not good for minority shareholders, according to analysts at the Swiss bank.

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According to Victor Hasegawa, Director of Infinity Asset, the news is positive. However, it also emphasizes, while maintaining the government golden share Continuing to nominate the head of the company, “no investor will want to pay the true value of the company, its possibilities, because there will still be a risk of political interference in the company.” Thus, it indicates that he is likely to suffer a discount on those sales.

“That would be perfect [o governo] Sell ​​completely without keeping this “golden stake”. But the question is also whether the government really wanted to make this sale or whether it was just considering the possibility of appearing more liberal at a time when it had discredited itself as a liberal government, he assessed.

He also points out that there is doubt as to how this sale was made to turn the company into a “company”, because it is a monopoly, noting that it would be more productive if Petrobras sold all of its refineries.

On the other hand, if approval of the sale of refineries is indeed a difficult process, Hasegawa points out that approval of the sale of refineries may be more complicated. “If all the refineries sell out, the burden of having to at least control the cost of fuel at the pump will leave Petrobras’ shoulders,” says the manager.

Gustavo Cruz, strategist at RB Investimentos, recalls that in the recent past, the company experienced moments of interference, such as in November 2014, when PwC refused to audit the state-owned company’s results, which led to a delay in disclosing the company’s numbers. In other words, the recent movement in the search for intervention is less positive.

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“Of course, it will be difficult to do the privatization of Petrobras as a whole, the government will always have a percentage and there is always a political issue. But given that we are approaching 2022, there is not much time to get into an election year and there is all the pressure [preços de] “Moves in that direction are giving the market some relief,” Cruz says.

Shares were already up before, about 4%, amid company news and on a day of recovery after a sharp decline in assets last week, with A loss of nearly 30 billion Brazilian riyals in market value.

Earlier, President Jair Bolsonaro stated, in an interview with a radio station in Mato Grosso do Sul, that Privatization of Petrobras “entered the radar” of the governmentBut he said it was not an immediate process.

“This got on our radar. But privatizing a company is not what some people think, which is to have the company put it on the shelf and tomorrow who gives more takes it away. It’s a big complication. Even more so when it comes to fuel. If you take it from the state monopoly, which exists, and put it in the Monopoly of a private person, it’s the same thing or maybe worse,” Bolsonaro told Radio Cocola, of Três Lagoas (MS).

still in this session, The state-owned company has informed that it will raise the average price of diesel Refineries increased 9.15% and gasoline 7.05% as of Tuesday, partly reflecting the rise in the price of a barrel of oil on the international market and the exchange rate.

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With the modifications, diesel – the country’s most traded fuel – will be sold to distributors at R$3.34 per liter, an increase of 65% this year so far, according to Reuters calculations based on company data.

Gasoline, on the other hand, will be sold at BRL 3.19 per liter, with an advance backlog of 73% per year.

In a note to clients, Credit Suisse said it considered the announcement positive and said the adjustments reduced the lag values ​​on import breakeven, which in bank accounts now stands at about 11% for both fuels.

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