June 27, 2022

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Should Gasoline Get More Expensive or Cheaper in 2022?

the Average price of gasoline He has not fallen since June 12 this year. Until then, there were constant highs and lows of the charged values ​​u200bu200bof the product at service stations. However, Petrobras announced this week that it will reduce the value of the fuel.

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According to the state-owned company, the average price of gasoline sold to distributors increased from R$ 3.19 to R$ 3.09 per liter. This equates to a decrease of 3.13%. last week , fuel It has already offered a slight price reduction, according to the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP).

But is this enough to reduce the values ​​in the pumps? The answer is no, because the price of gasoline in the end will still depend on taxes and on the margins of distributors and sellers.

How much will the fuel price be in 2022?

With the announcement of the fuel price cut, and the ICMS freezing until January 2022, many people are wondering if there will actually be a price cut from next year or if the high phase will still be in place.

According to a survey by ValeCard, expectations indicate a cumulative decrease of 5.94% in the value of gasoline, which should be sold in the range of R$ 6.18 in March, and this is the lowest expected rate for 2022.

However, from April onwards, the fuel is likely to rise again and reach a new peak in September, reaching around R$6.55. The level is similar to what is practiced today.

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José Geraldo Ortigosa, CEO of ValeCard, has announced that the main enemy of fuel prices in the coming year will be the dollar. However, in 2022, expectations point to more price stability, which justifies the decline in the value of gasoline from the first quarter.

“In addition to the macroeconomic balance for the beginning of 2022, our forecasts took into account the dollar forecast and fuel price formation for January, and the surveys conducted by the Central Bank and Petrobras, respectively,” Ortigosa added.

It is noteworthy that in the past 12 months, gasoline price inflation has already exceeded 50%, according to data from the International Institute of Statistics and Quality. In the case of ethanol, the increase was about 70%, while that of diesel increased by 49.56%.