May 30, 2024

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By Jeffrey Smith and Anna Beatriz Bartolo – US retail sales and industrial production data for July will be released today, as will Walmart and Walmart’s balance sheets. Home Depot , which should provide more details about US consumer spending.

Chinese competition authorities apply other measures to Internet platform companies, with shares of Ali Baba and Tencent and JD. US stocks are expected to retreat from Monday’s record highs at the open, and a single case of Covid-19 puts New Zealand on hold and smashes economists’ expectations for Wednesday’s central bank meeting.

In Brazil, the income tax reform will be voted on in the chamber’s plenary session.

Here’s what you need to know about the financial markets on Tuesday, August 17th.

Check:’s full economic calendar

1. Income tax

Today, the 17th day of the analysis of the text of the income tax reform is scheduled for the plenary session of the House of Representatives. Even without consensus, the action’s rapporteur, Representative Celso Sabino (PSDB-PA), told the Valor Econômico newspaper that he would not publish a new opinion nor should he make new changes to the proposal submitted last Thursday, 12.

The current version of the project maintains a 20% tax on dividends and dividends, but exempts companies with annual profits of up to R$4.8 million from paying these taxes. The decision also left the additional 10% of the IRPJ for profits above R$20,000 and reduced the social contribution on net income (CSLL) from 9% to 7.5% in 2022.

In the case of individuals, Sabino maintained the increase in the income tax exemption range from the current R$ 1.9 thousand to R$ 2.5 thousand.

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Check: Brazilian stock prices

2. Questions about US retail sales

The July data may or may not show whether the US consumer has become more cautious in response to the recent surge in US cases. COVID-19.

You’ll know the data at 9:30 a.m., but it poses a number of challenges in terms of its interpretation, as previous data showed that pandemic-induced changes in spending patterns were much stronger and completely unrelated to the usual process. Modification. So the details of the individual sectors may be more important than the address number. The balance sheets of Walmart (NYSE 🙂 (SA 🙂 and Home Depot (NYSE 🙂 (SA 🙂 will be published before the market opens, which may also be a more reliable indicator of US consumer activity.

Also due for July data at 10:15 am, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which has been in a slight downward trend since November.

Check: Balance Sheet Calendar

3. China against tech companies again and Covid-19 in New Zealand

Chinese stock markets sold out heavily again after the country’s regulators released new draft rules aimed at preventing unfair competition on the Internet.

The new draft by the State Administration for Market Regulation appears to be aimed at preventing companies such as Alibaba (NYSE::) (SA :), Tencent (HK :), and (NASDAQ:: (SA :)) from creating a stand-alone. Ecosystems that make it difficult to interact with other ecosystems. That would make the kind of vertical integration that has been central to the investment case for big Chinese internet platforms illegal.

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Under the new rules, groups will not be able to use customer data to learn how people behave and divert them from competing products and services. False reviews will also be prohibited, as will the practice of not displaying hyperlinks to competing sites. In addition, the media reported that the Chinese government has acquired a token 1% stake and a seat on the board of directors of Bytedance, which owns TikTok.

In New Zealand, the market fell more than 1% after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a national lockdown after one case was found. COVID-19, the first to spread throughout the community over six months ago. The move represents the determination to follow the “Zero Covid” strategy that the country has pursued since the beginning of the pandemic, at a time when more and more governments are working on strategies to make the disease a part of normal life.

The news was enough to change analyst expectations to Wednesday’s. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2014 by 50 basis points. Analysts now expect the interest rate to be unchanged or only 25 basis points higher.

Check: Pricing of the major global indices

4. Bearish US futures. Key Retail Procedures and Vaccines

US stocks are likely to open lower later after the now-familiar rally from record highs at the end of the previous day’s trading session.

at 9:08 am and are down 0.58%, 0.45% and 0.37%, respectively. The first two closed at record levels on Monday. Already, the index fund, which measures the performance of Brazilian stocks on Wall Street, is down 0.28% in pre-market.

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Walmart and Home Depot budgets will dominate the early headlines, while vaccine makers will also be in focus after reports that the administration is leaning toward endorsing “booster shots” against Covid-19.

Check: Pricing of major global futures indices

5. Oil fights before API stock numbers

Crude oil prices struggled again overnight on concerns about the strength of Chinese demand, despite data showing the fourth consecutive month of falling domestic stocks. The emphasis on a slight recovery in US shale oil production is also weighing on prices.

At 9:11 am, futures were down 0.75% to $66.55 a barrel, while futures were down 0.56% to $69.12 a barrel.

Check: Quote from major global commodities

The report will release its weekly estimates for US crude oil inventories at 5:30 pm, as usual. Analysts expect a drop of just over 1.2 million barrels.