Even with the increase in An additional fee is charged on the electricity bill For the Brazilians, the total amount collected will not be enough to cover the additional expenses of generating electricity. According to consulting accounts MegaWhat, there will still be a R$5 billion hack.
In August, the government created a new tariff science, which it called the science of water scarcity. With that said, there is a cost of R$14.20 per 100 kWh consumed.
According to the advisory, despite the estimated collection at the new rate of about R$24.03 billion, the additional expenditures caused by the lack of rain in the country should be around R$29 billion.
Danger of lack of rain
For Ana Carla Petti, president of MegaWhat, spending on so-called hydrologic risks is what affects this figure the most, coming in at about 20 billion R$.
“Hydroelectric plants expect average power generation in one year. But the same generation ends up being uneven, depending on weather phenomena. [chuvas]. If it is variable, there is a risk of much less power being generated than expected. When this happens, hydroelectric plants need to cover this shortfall by purchasing power from someone else. This is a hydrological hazard expense.”
The fee will only cover the cost if it goes up to R$18
According to MegaWhat’s data, in order to cover the account deficit through collection, the surcharge on the electricity bill should be R$18 per 100 kWh – an increase of about 27% compared to the current R$14.20.
According to Petty, the situation should extend into April.
“Today we see that there will be a need for high thermal power transmission, the raised flag of R$14.20 should be valid until April 2022 and we imagine that when it gets there, the system operator and Aneel (National Electric Energy Agency) will already have a better understanding for how the lockers are located and perhaps the value of the tariff will be reviewed.”
“If the situation gets worse, there may be more exceptions. But I think it’s very unlikely,” he said.
For every R$1 billion of expenditures discovered in this sector, a consumer can incur up to one percentage point of the increase in their energy bill. So, if the R$5 billion deficit persists, energy companies could pass an increase of about 5% next year.
For the economist and lawyer Alessandro Azzoni, if the deficit were transferred directly to the consumer, it could affect the productive sector and cause an even higher rise in inflation.
“There is already an expectation that this pass-through increase is an attempt to make up for this difference. But how [a alta da tarifa] Until April, if they increase the tariff again, it could have a greater impact on the productive sector. Therefore, there is even a chance of a deficit.”
“Inflation should already exceed 7.5%. If there is an increase in the fuel that is also used by thermal power plants, all this adjustment can push inflation higher,” he added.
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