January 21, 2022

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Bolsas em queda, falas de Powell e Yellen, ata do Copom e mais assuntos que vão movimentar o mercado hoje

Ibovespa closes lower for the second day in a row, with pressure from Wall Street ahead of the Fed

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the Ibovespa I repeated the movement of the previous day and closed after reaching 109 thousand pips. Business volatility on Tuesday (14) fueled a drop in the international market, with exchanges abroad reflecting inflation data and awaiting a monetary policy decision in the United States, as well as an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases related to the micron variable.

Here in Brazil, the agenda included two highlights that moved the markets. First Minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank (COBOM)The benchmark interest rate (Celec) rose 1.5 percentage points to 9.25% annually. The document reinforced the tone extremist From last Wednesday’s post-meeting statement, BC concluded that the monetary tightening process should be more restrictive than used in the base scenario.

On the other hand, recent economic indicators are still weaker than expected. The volume of services, released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), decreased by 1.2% in October compared to September. Refinitiv forecast, by market consensus, a 0.1% increase. This is the second negative rate in a row, at which a 1.9% decline is accumulating.

“With the latest decline data, the evidence we have is that the rise in Selic is starting to affect the economy. We already have interest rates in deflationary territory,” says João Beck, Partner at BRA.

Alexandru Nishimura, an economist at BRA, believes that the topic of PEC dos Precatórios is hitting investors again today. “The banner was reversed even when news started to circulate about the possibility of changing the PEC dos Precatório that would force a new assessment by the Senate,” he said.

Chamber voting on changes to the Senate Presidential Election Committee’s text had been waiting all day, but did not begin until after the market closed. The proposed amendment to the constitution provides for the deferral of the repayment of judicial debts, and to make room in the general budget for the financing of the Brazilian aid of R$400, to replace the Bolsa Família.

Closing numbers

The Ibovespa index closed 0.58% lower at 106,759 points. Today’s financial volume amounted to 25.9 billion Brazilian riyals. Ibovespa futures contracts for December 2021 decreased by 1.18%, to 106,575 points, in the last trading of the day.

“We see little room for a deterioration greater than or greater than what we are seeing in prices,” says Alexandro Prieto, Principal of Finacap.

The Trade Dollar closed 0.34% higher at R$5.693 in buying and R$5.694 on sale. The dollar futures contract for January 2022 rose 0.11%, to 5,707 Brazilian real, near the close.

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In the extended session of the futures market, the DI index for January 2023 rose four basis points, to 11.49%; DI for January 2025 worked near stability, at 10.46%; The DI for January 2027 was up 1 basis point at 10.37%.

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New York indices echoed producer inflation data (PPI) – the index rose 0.8% in November compared to October, while the market consensus expected a positive change of 0.5%. In twelve months, the index achieved an increase of 9.6%, the highest in eleven years.

The data was specifically released on the day the US Central Bank’s Open Market Committee (Fomc), Fed Copom meeting began. Investors fear that the monetary authority may use the index as a prelude to accelerating the withdrawal of stimulus to the country’s economy and increasing interest rates.

The Dow closed down 0.30% to 35,545 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.74% to 4,634 points. The Nasdaq closed down 1.14% at 15,237 points.

Another negative pressure came from the new coronavirus variant. Ômicron is already responsible for 3% of Covid cases in the United States, says the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A week ago, the variant represented less than 1% of cases.

Tedros Adhanom, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), stated that the new mutation must already be present in every country in the world, of which 77 countries already have confirmed cases.

European stocks closed lower for the fifth consecutive day. Investors remain cautious with Ômicron, given the increase in the number of new strain cases.

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The European Central Bank and the BoE will also hold meetings this week to assess the continuity of stimulus measures, which also put the market on hold. The Stoxx 600, an index that groups companies from 17 European countries, closed down 0.7%.

Oil prices closed lower, also echoing the news about the new alternative to the coronavirus. The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for consumption of the commodity in 2022 by 100,000 barrels per day, due to the new strain. A barrel of Brent crude for February 2022 closed down 0.95% to $73.68. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude for January fell 0.83% to $70.70.

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